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Some quick voiceover business thoughts to get your week in gear…..

1.) Okay, not VO related, but congrats to the Stanley Cup Champion Florida Panthers. Not the outcome I was hoping for, but what a series, and with two teams I didn’t care much about that was a lot of flight, hotel, and ticket expenses saved, LOL!

2.) Beware anyone presenting themselves as a moral authority (good advice outside of VO, too, by the way.) Wagging fingers are a well-known symptom of hypocrisy. It’s kind of like the line from Game of Thrones ….. “Any man who must say, ‘I am the King’ is no true King.” Moral authority is not a self-conferred accolade.

3.) Conference season is nigh…..OVC USA, eVOcation, MAVO, and WoVO Con are all coming up fast. Where are you headed this year? Remember, conferences aren’t like Pokemon….you don’t have to catch them all, and FOMO is nothing to be ashamed of. Pick one or two if you can, and try to mix and match lineups that best meet your current needs in terms of content, along with your travel budget. And if traveling is budget-busting, eVOcation is a great opportunity to learn the business side of VO from the comfort of your couch!

4.) If you ARE coming to Dallas in August for OVC, come say hi! We’ll have the mini JMC Demos booth there, and the best part about OVC USA is that Hugh Edwards and the Brits do all the hard work on the ground, which means me, Anna, and Tom are happy to hang with the peeps. See you there!

5.) As July approaches, newer talent may see the dreaded Summer Slowdown as lots of buyers go on vacation and things can stagnate a bit in certain genres. If you hit a slow patch, this is the time to go down your business checklist and make sure your website, marketing, demos, general skill set, agency rep, P2P profiles if you partake, and other ways you present yourself to buyers is ready to rock the fall. In many genres, mid-August through Thanksgiving is the busiest time of year. Be ready!

 

For most folks this weekend was Father’s Day. For the Collins household it was the high holy day known as the annual bacchanalia surrounding the birthday of one young Tom. After prep, (mostly Anna,) sweat, (mostly me playing laser tag with 8 year olds,) and Tom holding his new Nintendo Switch out for the world to see at his party like he was presenting Simba to the masses, it’s time to roll into another week of all things voiceover!

Here are a few thoughts to get you started.

 

1.) I was chatting with a coaching client last week who comes from a pretty successful business background, and we got on the subject of just how out of whack many people’s expectations are when it comes to starting a small business. And that’s what launching a voiceover career is….starting a small business. According to Shopify (https://www.shopify.com/blog/cost-to-start-business#) the average cost of starting a small business is $40,000 in the first year. In most cases this is before even thinking of seeing a profit. By comparison, methodical and thoughtful preparation to open a voiceover business is likely to run between $10,000 and $20,000 if done right. You can spend more, and you can certainly spend less, but if you want to work with coaches who will help you improve quickly, get decent gear, put together a good recording space, get competitive demos and a website that does more than collect dust….plus any of the other various expenditures that will come up along the way….this is a good benchmark. And, compared to most industries, it’s a bargain.

Yes, it’s easy to say that from a place of privilege at a time when the economy sucks for most people and just paying bills is a challenge, but my purpose here is to suggest that the first thing anyone considering building a business in this field needs to do is to save the capital necessary to avoid cutting corners and half measures that are likely to lead to failure. And, in case you were curious, 90% of new small businesses fail. This helpful article from Eric Degen of TITAN Business Development Group explains why, ( https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-90-small-businesses-fail-eric-degen-cpa-cgma-cepa-lpbc-cmec-uyece/), and if you think about it, every reason he enumerates can be applied to voiceover.

Starting a small business is a not-inexpensive endeavor that will most likely end in failure. If you’re going to take the leap, you MUST give yourself every possible advantage at the beginning if you want to separate from the pack.

 

2.) Being good isn’t enough. Yes, the industry has become massively more meritocratic over the years, but as my previous article discussed, the glut in the middle is making it harder to stand out, and when combined with the massive shifts happening in every level of the online casting space, you can’t rely on just paying a membership fee and getting your audition in early to put food on the table anymore.

If anything, the industry is shifting back to a more relationship-based world. Some people will call this gatekeeping or politics. Another term for it is real life. There’s no industry on the planet that operates purely on merit. Being liked and likable, looking out for others, being helpful, and not being someone associated with negativity are key attributes for success in EVERY FACET OF LIFE. It’s called playing the game, and it may not always be fun….hell, I enjoy it more than most but still get exhausted sometimes….but friendship and connections are the currency of humanity.

Do not expect to thrive in voice over because you, “earned it,” or “it’s your turn,” or you, “did all the right things.” Not alone, at least. Doing all the right things is important, but if you can’t get buyers and casting professionals to give you the time of day, it might be time to look at relationship building as the missing piece of the puzzle. If you’re waiting to be “discovered,” you’re gonna have a long wait.

 

3.) We’ve been seeing remarkably fast shifts in the commercial VO world in particular lately with regard to trending reads. To the point where it’s hard to pin much down other than to be aware of the full range of different techniques and to be able to deploy your best guess as to the right one at will.

But one thing I’m hearing that is cutting through all the noise is more of a vibe than anything else…..the voices consistently getting hired for quality commercial work have an inherently effortless modern coolness to them that is different than what was trending just a few years ago. It’s the steady person in the group…..the one who would keep their head in a crisis but also likes puppies and will happily carry their infant in one of those carry-the-baby-on-your-chest things (that’s the technical term,) on hike up a mountain. They’re fit, but not a gym bro or duckface girl, smart but not patronizingly so….probably right but not morally superior. They’re the person who sees the world on fire and makes the best of it their way, without complaining about the service or how life screwed them over. It’s a pivot towards positive without the sell, and I kinda dig it.

 

4.) Check out the Artists Against Generative AI FB group if you want to see some folks who really understand how to knock AI sludge down a peg. https://www.facebook.com/groups/1404116417142065

 

5.) Okay, time for colonoscopy prep! My doctor cracked a Michael Jackson/propofol joke to Anna when describing the sedative. If you don’t hear from me again after tomorrow morning, you know what’s up!

Here are 5 quick thoughts to get your voiceover week rolling:

 

1.) If you read my previous blog, you’ll remember that I talk about it being more challenging than ever to stand out among the many very good talent out there……so what are you doing to separate? It can’t all be about skill, because there are lots of exceptional VOs….so what about finding hot or more untapped spaces to play, and also to potentially impress the keepers of rosters you want to join? What’s hot? Sports Promo, especially for female talent. Post-chatty Commercials, both of the less-is-more and more-is-more variety as we witness opposite trends hitting at the same time in delivery styles. What’s untapped? Niches within niches. Real Estate Narration, especially commercial properties….Sports Gaming/Betting commercials & industrials…..and in light of last week’s happenings, Political is hitting a new critical mass of spots as messaging changes rapidly…something that is likely to continue right up until Election Day.

 

2.) It’s almost summer…..in a sea of nose-to-the-grindstone advice, (which to be fair is generally a correct approach, especially for newer talent,) remember that you work to live, and not vice versa. Go outside. Enjoy some YOU time. Don’t forget the WHY.

 

3.) Giving a little extra love to the VO industry this week as I’m seeing a lot of helpfulness and a lot less snark and vitriol on VO social media lately. Good on you.

 

4.) New VO’s: Summer can be a slower period for newer talent as a lot of buyers are taking time off and many fall back to their reliable stable of VOs during this period. This becomes less of a factor later in your career, but if you find summer slowing down, what’s your plan to be ready for the fall rush? Voice over’s busiest period is typically from about August 15th through Thanksgiving. The moves you make over the next two months can set you up for a flush fall!

 

5.) Got kids who do VO? Make sure you let any rosters you are a part of know. You’d be surprised how few competent VO kids are out there, and the quickest way to bring in work for the littles is to let those who already trust you know you have a mini VO me at home!

 

Now, get booking!!!

Social media. Gotta love it. Depending on where you look in the voiceover social media sphere, it’s either feast or famine. Folks posting their wins. And others dropping stories of struggle, declining income, and AI fear porn. On any given day you could be forgiven for feeling confused about whether voiceover is a growth sector or an industry on the ropes. The truth is, ultimately, both. And each person’s reality is shaped by factors both within and outside of their control.

Why is there such a chasm between those who seem to be thriving and experiencing continued growth and those who sense a drying up of opportunity? Well, as they say, the cheese has moved. And if you aren’t aware of how or why, you’re going to get left behind, no matter how talented you are, how great your demos are, how on point your marketing is, or how many connected friends you have. Indeed, what the industry is experiencing today is deeply analogous to the advent of the DIY era of voiceover in the mid 2000’s, when suddenly droves of cosseted voice actors who only knew the brick and mortar world of representation, in-person auditions, and working from professional storefront studios experienced a massive shock as the industry democratized.

The folks lamenting on social media today about how hard it is to get an agent, how the P2P landscape is withering and more challenging than ever, the level of competition, how onerous marketing is, and how unfair everything seems, are very much like the talent I encountered 15-20 years ago who didn’t understand why they weren’t earning half a million dollars a year anymore doing a couple dozen jobs per year through their single LA or NYC agent….oh, and what’s a home studio?

Here’s the cold hard truth of what many people are experiencing.

1.) Demographics

The industry has enough 35-65 year-old white people with tons of talent. Male and female.

Sorry, but them’s the facts. If you’re in that demographic, (I am,) have a fairly standard vocal range, (nothing particularly unique about your sound, no matter how good you are,) and don’t have an established base of agency rep, existing clients, fluid marketing processes that yield consistent results, strong SEO, and income to spend on networking in-person and continuing to make your “package” of assets and skills bleeding edge and in tune with market trends and demands, you are going to have a hard road. Period.

It may be harsh, but show me a social media rant on how “unfair” everything is, and I can guarantee with 99% accuracy it’s someone from this category. The simple truth is that after dominating the airwaves since the dawn of the spoken word, middle aged white folks are no longer the in-demand demographic. Which is not to say there isn’t plenty of work for us at fair market rates. There is. But we have to work harder than ever before to land enough of it to sustain and grow careers. Because within this demographic, the industry is simply full.

That doesn’t mean that new entrants can’t still rise and build great careers. Or that you can’t turn around a career that is flagging. But it does mean that it’s harder, and that more than ever before only the very best performers with the thickest skins and strongest dedication to their businesses will come out the other end and thrive. It also means that the time for being honest with yourself is at hand. Listen to the competition. Listen to spots on the air. Listen to demos on major agency websites. Do you know in your heart of hearts that you are as good or can be as good as the people who are landing the jobs today? We want the answer to be yes, but the answer isn’t always yes. And before you go spending thousands on coaching, demos, conferences, whatever, (I’m not a very good salesperson am I?,) it’s time for a tough talk with yourself if you fit into this demographic about whether the investment in time and money is worth it.

And this is not to minimize the struggles and challenges facing BIPOC, minority, LGBTQ+ or other talent outside of this demographic, but the industry now, to its great credit in my opinion, looks much more like America does compared to even 5-10 years ago, and in the under-35 space, the non-white space, and, interestingly, even in the elder-talent space (75+,) there is not the same imbalance of supply and demand.

 

2.) Agents/Managers

In the past, talent agencies and management companies NEEDED voice actors in order to keep up with the volume of work that was almost strictly flowing through their doors, and great talent even in more saturated demographics could get a good look at top tier rep, fairly easily get regional rep, and could get local agents just with one good demo and no credentials.

In today’s Wild West VO landscape where work is spread out amongst numerous channels, most agents have enough of what they need to cover the submissions they need to send on any given job. Even the regional agencies are now fairly full, so now the onus is on YOU more than ever before to make yourself someone an agency CAN’T say no to. What does that mean? If you’re already an earner, be prepared to walk some existing accounts into an agency if you expect them to take you on. Show them you are willing to put some skin in the game and trust them with your career. Be prepared with a suite of great reels and not just one but several trusted recommendations. And spend time (and yes, money,) putting yourself in front of these folks at every opportunity. People are gonna people, and the simple fact is that ultimately the difference between talent X getting signed and talent Y getting signed is that the agent in question already knows and likes you, and has heard you read on multiple occasions and watched you demonstrate that you can take direction and feedback with grace and respond professionally like you would if one of their buyers hired you.

If you’re not already an earner with a big client list, even when chasing smaller agencies, make sure your package of assets stands out over the competition by leaps and bounds. The days of “hoping for the best” when seeking rep with your very first set of demos are over. What are you doing to show agencies that you can outperform and potentially out-earn the people currently on their roster?

 

3.) P2P

P2P sites, or online casting, is not dead, but it’s also not what it was.

You can complain about that Voice123 algorithm all you want. I do. It sucks. Even as a Platinum. Though at this point I couldn’t begin to even sort through the 50+ auditions that come through every day. But that’s not gonna change the fact that they’ve implemented a system that reflects a similar reality to what talent agents are facing: More and more buyers are simply moving way from third parties altogether, and aggregate job growth is decreasing as more voice actors find work through their own marketing, and more VO clients find US directly through search. P2P sites are doing what they feel they have to in order to avoid saturating buyers with hundreds of bad auditions and driving them away. If it were up to me, every site would follow the bodalgo model, with every member seeing every job the moment it was posted and having a first come first served opportunity to compete strictly on merit, but clearly that does not meet the needs of the major platforms bottom lines, which are beholden to investors.

What can you do about it? On Voice123 the unfortunate answer is that you must both pay AND excel. If you’ve damaged your ranking to where you are not in the top 20% and you are paying for a tier under their $2200 level, very simply you aren’t going to get great opportunities. Once again, the time for brutal self reflection is upon us. If you’re ranking bottom X percent and you are at the $888 (or whatever it is these days) level, the only solution I’ve seen work for people is to simply abandon that account and start fresh with a new profile and credit card at $2200. But this requires that you have absolute certainty that your ability level, voice type, and willingness to invest the time in auditioning are all sufficiently well-prepared to thrive on the platform. If you are one-read Bob or Betty, no matter how good that read is, P2P is probably not where it’s at for you anymore. I know talent who have created new $2200 accounts who book 3-4 jobs per week and stay in the top 10-20% and are crushing it. But I’ve seen plenty fail, too, because they did not frankly evaluate how in-demand their skills are, how STRONG their skills ACTUALLY are, and how willing they are to engage with the audition process for hours each day.

If you choose to use Voices, you’ll find a different landscape but similar issues in as much as they are now rationing jobs via their algorithm in an opaque manner that most members report leaving them with considerably lower audition numbers overall than in the past, even though their algorithm supposedly does not use your performance metrics to influence distribution like Voice123.

The pandemic brought in huge numbers of new talent, and most went to the P2Ps. With slower job growth on these sites, rationed distribution was inevitable.

Bottom line: In 2024 the P2P landscape isn’t all that different than the agency landscape in the sense that not only do you have to understand how to play the game, but you also then have to be able to consistently and continuously OUTPERFORM the competition in order to thrive, while at the same time recognizing whether or not you are in a demographic that is more saturated than others.

 

So, why even bother with VO in 2024?

Well, you still see those wins and success stories as much as the laments, right?

Who is posting them, and how are they making success happen in this weird and crowded landscape?

Like those who saw the cheese moving to DIY work in the mid 2000’s, made the pivot, and thrived, today’s generation of VOs, both those who have established careers over the last 15-20 years in a world that the previous generation found foreign but are now seeing THAT world decline due to shifting buying patterns and demographic demands, AND the pandemic entrants who came in around 2020 and have had enough good outcomes to stick and become bookers but are frustrated that they can’t get out of the “occasional booking” zone, now have to shake off much of what they have learned about “the way things are,” and move to meet “the way things are going.”

Where are things going?

1.) At bats are everything.

What’s an at-bat in the VO world? An active audition or a marketing touch that gets your demo into the hands of a potential buyer or roster of interest. One thing that has not changed is the simple reality that the only secret in voice over is that the more people who hear you, the more you will get hired, (assuming of course that skill and ability to deliver are present.) You know who you see posting wins on social media on a weekly basis? The people who are STRONG TALENT, have great auditioning and marketing skills, AND who are being heard by 20 or more potential buyers EVERY SINGLE DAY. Can’t access 20 auditions a day through agents, P2P, other rosters? Market until you bleed. Still not getting results? Double back to reality-check on your skill set and presentation. Been after it for a few years doing everything right and it ain’t happening? Consider the possibility that, in some cases….it might not. Don’t become a victim of the sunk cost fallacy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_cost

 

2.) Diversify.

Agents/management, production company and ad agency rosters, P2P if you choose, direct marketing, SEO, networking in-person. All of these can bring you at bats, which bring you revenue. Don’t become overweighted in one at the expense of the others, a mistake many new talent fall into with P2P sites.

 

3.) Consistent volume work.

Those big bookings that pay for a vacation or a car are great, but how often do they actually happen? For most talent, once a year at most. You’d be surprised how many of even the most successful talent you know pay their bills primarily on the back of that $400 corporate narration client who has been sending them 5 jobs a month for a decade, or that series of local automotive dealers they voice $250 spots for EVERY SINGLE DAY, or that political production house that hires them weekly during election season, and monthly during off years. It’s great to chase the shiny objects, but you’ll chase more than you catch in most cases. Build a strong foundation of regular clients, even at moderate budgets, and from there you’ll find the resources to chase bigger dreams.

 

4.) SEO, SEO, SEO.

Make THEM come to YOU! Under-40 buyers are sick and tired of middlemen. Online casting sites are 20 YEARS OLD. This is NOT “the future of casting,” it’s what the last generation did. If you’re not working with SEO experts you are missing the boat on walk-in business that will sustain your career, much of it far higher profile than you might expect.

 

Times are changing. Dynamics are shifting. Read trends are shifting…fast. Voices that would never have been cast for certain campaigns ten years ago are now the ones most in demand, and the ones that were most in demand are often becoming afterthoughts. Talent who were ahead of the game just a few years ago are suddenly realizing that the goalposts just keep moving. It’s enough to make your head spin. But one thing I’ve seen consistently over three decades in this business is that those who anticipate and adapt thrive, and those who don’t often watch even exceptional careers implode. Change is the only constant. Embrace it, and you’ll be posting your wins soon enough.

 

 

 

 

You’d think Frankenstein had released his monster, given the mobs that have been forming lately in certain parts of the voiceover industry.

 

I’ve been a big proponent of what a genuinely nice industry this is, and in general, that remains very true. We are, as a group, far more supportive and kind than most professions, and that is to our credit.

 

Recently, however, some cracks in our welcoming smiles have been showing.

 

There has long been a subculture of aggressive skeptics in our business. A handful of cynics who see any attempt to offer services to fellow voice actors as suspect. While their acid-tongued snark can be off-putting, they provide a service in their own right, as those who would seek to exploit their fellow VO’s know they have eyes on them, and that shady behavior is subject to being spotlighted. Most of these folks have been around for at least a decade or two, and they’ve seen the good, bad, and ugly of service marketing.

 

Every now and then someone steps forward and, for a time, plays the role of Sheriff. NAVA is filing those shoes in many ways today, helping organize legal help for those who have been misled by Lisa Biggs. I had my turn back when Voices dot com’s original ownership first betrayed our trust and ultimately took them to court, and yet others answered the call when Peter Rofe used his position to victimize women in our industry. It’s a lonely role and one no one would want it for long, but sometimes it’s necessary.

 

Calling out bad behavior and protecting our industry is healthy.

 

What is not healthy, however, is the forming of mobs and attempts at call out/cancel culture based on supposition, conjecture, and just because you don’t like the way someone promotes their services.

 

So, let’s have a look at the right ways and the wrong ways to point out wrongdoing in the voiceover industry.

 

The right way, step 1: Name names

 

Don’t be a coward.

 

If you have a complaint, concern, or worry about the conduct of a fellow VO or service provider, and you feel the need to go public, have the courage to say who you are talking about, and give them a fair chance to respond.

 

The wrong way: Vague-booking, talking around the issue, or framing things in a way that can be associated to particular person without standing up and saying who you are talking about. Also, please don’t use a paean to piety as a place to drop a link to your own coaching services. Because gross.

 

The right way, step 2: Identify a victim.

 

You find a person’s conduct problematic and have named them publicly? Great! Now, who did they harm, scam, or lie to? You? If not, we’re gonna need to know the name of the person or people they DID take advantage of. If the conduct is of a nature like the Rofe incident, and the identities of the victims need to be protected for fear of causing further trauma, the matter is probably best reserved for the courts until formal charges or civil action is taken, but that’s a harder call. Otherwise, a victim and bad act need to be identified.

 

The wrong way, step 2: Inferring malicious intent based upon marketing tactics or language.

 

Yes, there are absolutely many red flags that can be inferred from the way people sell their services. But we discuss those regularly in forums in a general way. NAVA has issued best practices guidelines. And we also need to stop and remember that in a free market economy people may market their services as they please so long as they aren’t engaging in misrepresentation. MANY of the tactics that we as voice actors have come to see as shady are staples of internet marketing and completely common in other fields, and just because someone is aggressive or ubiquitous in their marketing is not ipso facto evidence of bad intentions. Buyer beware, in all things. We have a right to protect each other, but we do not have a right to attack the business of our colleagues without concrete evidence of wrongdoing. The legal system has a term for that: tortious interference….and it’s a good way to find yourself on the wrong end of a civil judgement.

 

Which leads into…

 

The right way, step 3: Show proof, and make sure it’s the real deal.

 

You’ve named the wrongdoer. You’ve identified the victim and/or bad act. Now it’s time to close the deal. Show the email chains, the money trail, the belligerent voicemails and threats, the evidence of promises not kept.

 

If the evidence you post on social media would not be sufficient to close the deal in a courtroom, you are not only acting in a morally questionable manner, you are, again, placing yourself at risk of serious financial liability. Bring. The. Goods.

 

The wrong way, step 3:

 

Posting conclusions about the person you haven’t named and don’t have evidence of having victimized anyone.

 

“They’re a liar.” “They’re a bully.” “They’re cheating people.” “They’re a charlatan.”

 

There’s a legal term for this, too. Libel. And it can also be very expensive.

 

When you attack someone’s reputation in a public forum without the proof to back it up you are not only acting like a high school bully, you are potentially damaging their ability to make a livelihood and feed their family, and you’re also setting yourself up for substantial consequences should they be inclined to defend their integrity in a legal forum. This is the very reason the civil law concept of libel exists. You also run the risk of looking like a fool and a rabble rouser among your peers. So tread carefully.

 

I am proud to be part of an industry that is filled with so many shining examples of kindness and decency. And, keeping it real, I’m glad for the cynics and skeptics and sharp-tongued critics who keep ALL OF US honest. We need those people. And I get that recent events, especially considering that many people were victimized by someone considered by just about everyone to be reputable, have left us a bit raw and uncertain.

 

What we don’t need, however, are people forming posses because someone’s marketing or personality might not mesh with every best practice orthodoxy that we’ve been told is holy writ. Check their credentials. Ask for referrals. Review the offering. Make up your own mind. But unless you have proof of wrongdoing and are willing to name names, maybe think twice before you grab a pitchfork and join a mob, or form one.

 

Someone reminded me recently that trying to be the white knight/hero usually comes off as self-serving and virtue signaling. It’s advice we could all take a dose of.

It’s that time again. To put on the record my Nostradamus-like crystal ball gazing thoughts on what will absolutely, almost certainly, without a doubt probably not happen in 2024.

 

But first, let’s revisit how badly I screwed things up this time last year!

 

GOT IT RIGHT/PRETTY CLOSE

 

I predicted a slowing of new entrants into the business as economics crunched newbie budgets and also that the general decline of rates would slow or stop as fewer new talent began to slow the supply/demand imbalance in certain genres.

 

This feels mostly on target. Many coaches, including myself, saw the VO-curious less likely to pull the trigger and invest in training in 2023, with many taking a long look but ultimately deciding not to make the leap. Interestingly, the high-end of the services business was very strong…..demos, retreats, conferences, workshops….high ticket items were oversubscribed as established or semi-established talent looked to level up. But entry level coaching demand slowed, and I think many people will receive that as good news.

 

Whether or not that directly impacted the second prediction, I’m not sure, but despite many pressures on the industry the one thing that felt like it was moving in a better direction this year were rates. We’re not going back to the ‘90s glory days on pay for broadcast work, but the attrition seems to have stopped, and if anything I saw agents/managers fighting harder than ever and often winning the battle for fairer pay and usage terms, while also actively working to protect us from AI threats. In the online/new world/marketing side of VO, it felt like rates steadied and even started to grow a bit, perhaps with some correlation to the overall socio-psychology pervasive across the globe in 2023 that favored the empowerment of labor over greed.

 

I was wrong about there being a mild recession this year, but the rest of my financial picks were spot on. Inflation is no longer inflating (though the damage has been done, and people remain unhappy at the massive cost increases that resulted from gross mismanagement of the pandemic.) And my financial market forecast is a straight-up “nailed it.” Bumpy start to 2023, flying high at the end. Gonna take a victory lap on that one.

 

I’ll also take a win on my AI prediction. Lots of hand-wringing and discussion. Negligible impact on the bottom line of most VOs. Considering where the discussion was twelve months ago, it feels safe to say that the fear of some immediate AI-pocalypse was overblown. That’s not to minimize potential risk, but the Terminator has not arrived yet by any means.

 

I predicted that the death of crypto was exaggerated and that Bitcoin would nearly double in 2023 from its 2022 end of year low. I’m not dropping money into doggy coins, but this feels like a pretty good call, too.

 

My prediction regarding classic demos remaining the standard with agents/managers/CDs, and samples becoming more important on casting sites feels pretty accurate.

 

As predicted, the union made a stand for voice actors and many others in 2023, and are continuing to pay more attention to the needs of voice talent. They’ll be back with a 5-person entourage at VO Atlanta this year and we’re excited to have them!

 

The prediction of Trump indictments was….accurate, LOL.

 

My prediction of some sunshine returning to VO reads panned out to some extent, especially for female voices, but on the other hand the flat read has morphed into something more detached and distracted, so this is a split decision.

 

2023 was indeed a running social party for VOs, with packed conferences and lots of red carpets. It could have been a better year business-wise, but we definitely had fun being together once again.

 

Okay, I’m feeling pretty good about those ones. What did I completely screw up???

 

BLEW IT/WTF WERE YOU THINKING?

 

No major agency mergers to speak of, with maybe the most interesting moves on the representation front being the elevation of Sumeet Iyengar to the head of Cope Management after his run at CESD, and Kristin Paiva striking out on her own to create a new animation casting company.

 

My Super Bowl picks clearly reflected heart over head, though the Bengals did get pretty close, (and I froze my toes in 15 degree weather in KC watching them lose a nail-biter in the AFC championship game.)

 

Sadly, Putin and Xi remain very much in charge, though Putin did get a little scare over the summer.

 

My presidential front runners pick was a split. Biden remains in top position for the Dems, but DeSantis never caught traction and is fading fast.

 

World peace. Yeah. Not so much.

 

So, looks like 2023 picks performed reasonably, let’s see what the Crystal Lobster says about 2024….

 

INDUSTRY: 2024 will clarify what areas of voiceover are likely to be heavily impacted by AI, and which are likely to feel very little effect. I am more confident than ever that this technology is very little threat to real creative VO, and will largely proliferate in the YouTube, cheap explainer, and perhaps Imaging and Affiliate spaces, where price pressure is always on. Low-end e-learning will disappear, but quality-minded buyers know this tech does not hold the attention of their audiences. Moreover, more and more regulation will be enacted to protect us and society at large, and people will continue to reflexively simply reject the vulgar inauthenticity of generative AI in creative media. If a technology makes a noise in a tech bro’s house, will anyone else hear it? We will see.

 

WORLD: Let’s get that Super Bowl pick out of the way. I’m throwing it back ‘80s style. The feel-good San Francisco 49ers will edge out the flash and dash Miami Dolphins in a down-to-the-wire thriller in Las Vegas.

 

INDUSTRY: Unpopular opinion: Under new ownership/leadership, (not me!) certain casting platforms and training organizations that have had massive reputational issues may begin to turn the corner as they pay more attention to criticisms of their past practices. Watch this space.

 

WORLD: It’s an election year, and what’s fun for political VO’s may be hell for the actual country, but we’ll see. I’m gonna go out on a limb here for a chance at a big win. On Election Day in November, voters will have not two but FOUR high-profile choices. President Biden, Republican nominee Donald Trump, Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and the No-Labels ticket, which I predict will nominate former Maryland governor Larry Hogan for President, and I hope to see Colorado governor Jared Polis as the VP choice.

 

Now, here’s where it gets fun. Nobody wins a majority of the electoral college, which means the Republican House of Representatives picks the President (and the Democratic Senate picks the VP.) You would expect this means a new term for Trump, but in an Earth-shattering bipartisan deal, Larry Hogan agrees to return to the Republican Party and leave No Labels in exchange for a majority of the House throwing the Presidency to him, and in exchange for Democratic support of this maneuver in the House, Senate Republicans agree to support Polis as VP, and the centrist Hogan/Polis administration quickly becomes the most popular in recent history.

 

INDUSTRY: Commercial VO sets records in 2024, with ad spend loosening as the economy improves and $15B spent on political ads.

 

WORLD: Sadly, the rest of the world continues to face dark days. The war in Israel and Gaza escalates to include Hezbollah and Lebanon, Iran gets involved directly or indirectly, and the US and allies strike the Houthis in Yemen as they continue to threaten maritime interests. Violence between supporters of both sides flares elsewhere in the world, with both anti-semitism and anti-Muslim sentiment growing more entrenched. 2024 ends with many more casualties and little prospect of peace as both sides dig in. The danger of massive escalation hovers over the world like the sword of Damocles, with the very real possibility of a nuclear exchange between Israel and Iran. The Biden administration and the incoming Hogan administration continue to strongly back Israel with money and materiel, and China and Russia match that support by supplying those backing the Palestinian cause. The prospect of a long proxy war becomes very real.

 

INDUSTRY: In a world that has grown more serious and dangerous, voices of strength and gravitas begin to grow in demand again, much as they did during the pandemic. For all the wrong reasons, middle aged talent and less-chatty reads have a strong 2024.

 

WORLD: China continues to rattle sabers at Taiwan, but with so much other turmoil is not inclined to invade in the coming year. Distracted by events in the Middle East, Western funding for Ukraine begins to run dry. A truce is inevitably reached with Russia retaining some territorial gains in the East, and both sides declare a form of victory as Ukraine boasts of facing down one of the world’s most massive powers without yielding its core territory, and Russia claims a win having incorporated more ethnically Russian regions of Ukraine back into its territory.

 

INDUSTRY: Facing many of the same issues that caused the strike in 2023, both commercial and interactive deals are made without a strike being necessary, as both sides understand that any outcome of a strike would essentially be a replay of the 2023 version, with too much collateral damage. There are wins and losses on both sides.

 

WORLD: Searching for some good news, housing prices in the USA finally start to come back to Earth, perhaps with a substantial crash at some point in 2024. By the end of the year rents and home prices are down 15% from their peaks, though decreasing interest rates make the prospects for a long term respite short-lived.

 

INDUSTRY: NAVA continues to focus on its core mission of protecting the industry as a whole, helping to craft bipartisan legislation protecting the likeness of artists, including our voices, at the Federal level.

 

WORLD: While instability percolates abroad, America’s pivot to the political center at year’s end ushers in the beginning of a new era that sees moderate voices prevail and a new coming together around common sense ideas for growth, cooperation, inclusivity, and tolerance of diverse perspectives. Extremists on both sides of the ideological spectrum become the subject of deeper skepticism, and we all begin to get along again as the nature of both major parties begins to change in the wake of their rebuke by voters in November.