J. Michael Collins

The One Voice Conference. The One Voice Awards. A staple event and celebration of our industry packed into one. And the 2025 edition might have been the best yet, more or less seamless from start to finish with deep camaraderie that was much needed.

Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles Stadium Announcer Bill Larson gave a rousing keynote address to open the event, the presenters were on their games, friends were made, and relationships were built or cemented.

And there were important things accomplished. A town hall on sexual harassment in the industry spearheaded by NAVA brought needed and cathartic discussion of a problem that affects far too many voice actors, and led to immediate results with multiple victims who had previously remained quiet speaking out both publicly and seeking help privately. Plus, Carin Gilfry brought pizza.

The One Voice Awards were perhaps the best iteration yet, moving at a good pace and without technical difficulties…..the beef was nice, the cheesecake gluttonous…..and dozens of the best in the business were recognized for their accomplishments.

The closing Sunday ended with usual fanfare and fun, and folks packed their bags and went their separate ways.

And then, I was hit by a two by four to the soul. Upon returning home, I received an email from an agent informing me that Bryan Carmody, the man you see in the picture here, suddenly passed away. I later spoke by email with his wife who confirmed it was a likely heart attack. Completely unexpected. Far too young.

I lost the better part of that day to the shock. Bryan was a good friend, one of my favorite coaching students, a heavy-hitting booker, (national voice of Harbor Freight among many others,) and had just signed with a major agent after putting in lots of hard work to get there. He was immensely talented, someone I wouldn’t want to go up against in a trailer/promo/imaging contest, and was a thoughtful and kind man who put others first and was grateful for all the industry had done for him. I spent dozens of hours with him online, and at workshops in New York and Chicago, VO Atlanta, and OVC USA. I just always assumed I would see him again soon. 

Bryan was a grinder like me. Sure, he got his fair share of big wins, and was a serious earner…..but he did it the blue collar way….racking up hundreds of loyal mid-tier clients in between the splashy nationals. Spending way more than 40 hours a week in his studio. Always asking, “what’s next.” And enjoying his life. He was warm, genuine, and thoughtful, and even when it was about him, it was never “about him.”

I’d worked with Bryan for about two years trying to help him catch the attention of a heavy-hitting agent. We did numerous demos, had lots of strategy talks, and got him in a lot of rooms. I watched him have a not great day in one where he was hoping for a result….suck it up, and get back on the horse during our next meeting. I watched him get close with his pick of LA agents, but fell just short of closing the deal–too many guys like him on the roster. Took it in stride. Kept trucking. Kept booking. And then, just this July, in Chicago, he got another shot in another room. And Bryan had a very good day, which led to him being signed by that agent just a couple weeks later.

And now he’s gone.

I’ve had Alanis Morissette running through my head for a week and a half now. Life has a funny way…..

And yet, the world has a way of helping all of us heal, sometimes in the most unexpected ways.

A few days ago I was on a call with JMC Voiceover Brands Creative Director Kayla Jackson……one of my dearest friends in the industry who I have watched emerge as a new talent almost a decade ago, burst like a supernova onto the industry scene, make the rather questionable decision to sign on first as my personal assistant and now co-directing at my workshops, repped by the best of the best, leading conference panels and running a copy workout so good at OVC that one of the top agents in the industry left the room saying Kayla needs to start teaching commercial on her own.

Kayla was in the room in Chicago when Bryan had his big day. Kayla directed him that morning, and brought every bit as much out of him as I did, getting him ready to blow that agent’s mind in the afternoon.

And during our call, just days after we were both stunned by Bryan’s passing….Kayla told me what she’s now revealed to the world….that next May, her family would be getting a little bigger.

New life.

We will mourn Bryan’s passing, and hold memories of him close. And next year, the industry gets to celebrate one of the very best humans among us welcoming a new human into her family, (and no doubt, all of ours eventually.)

Darkness. Light. Life.

May we all hold each other close, and remember that beyond all the personalities and brands and success stories and failures…….this community is just people. It’s just us. And we must enjoy every day we get with the ones we care about. In the end, that’s all that matters.

 

Let’s get something straight upfront: Anyone who says AI isn’t good enough to replicate most voiceover tasks doesn’t understand, or hasn’t heard, the technology.

It’s pretty flipping good, and can maintain quality longer than it could before, (though still not with enough consistency to be on even footing with good pro voice actors.)

But, it’s a workable technology that many are integrating into their business flow, which terrifies voice over artists.

It shouldn’t.

Let’s trot out the common arguments first: AI can never be BETTER than a voice actor, only AS GOOD, and when it comes to top tier performances it still isn’t even close to being capable of offering the options and range of a great human VO, and falls way behind in trying to do so in the same period of time a well-directed person can.

It requires detailed and precise prompting that is challenging to get right and even more difficult to get right over long stretches, meaning a buyer must spend on a skilled prompter to make the thing work well at all, (when they could cut out the extra step by simply hiring human.)

It is environmentally unsustainable in its current form. This isn’t some bleeding-heart save-the-whales Greta Thunberg statement. It is LITERALLY unsustainable. It takes between one and three GALLONS of water for ChatGPT to generate a SINGLE IMAGE. It consumes unfathomable amounts of energy for simple tasks. The techbros who preach its inevitability better find a few new oceans at this rate, or AI anything will be a very short-lived proposition once people have to choose between hydration, showering, and protecting their homes from fire versus workflow simplification.

To say nothing of the legitimate concerns of many of AI’s very creators that it may, in fact, lead to the end of human civilization.

From our remote little corner of the economy, however, comes solace. AI voiceover, specifically, has two massive flaws, one which may ultimately prove its undoing when it comes to making a business case for its use.

The first flaw, as backed up by recent discussions with leadership in the online voiceover casting site space, is substantial data that now shows that even when presented with quality AI voiceover at marked-down rates right alongside humans at higher rates on the same platform, uptake of AI voices is NEAR ZERO over YEARS of testing, with substantial feedback offered that once the buyer KNOWS the voice is artificial, they no longer want it, no matter how good it may be. This dovetails with much of our own reaction to the technology in everyday life. AI-generated research papers are considered frauds or cheating. You can’t turn in AI homework. And even Google’s new Veo 3 AI video generator, while impressive, still lives firmly in the uncanny valley. I’m looking at my watch and waiting for the first fully-AI hit movie or TV series. Think I’ll be here for awhile.

More importantly for voiceover, however, is that the AI voiceover business model ONLY works financially for the companies offering these products as a software-as-a-service model, generally based on buying credits or subscriptions that increase in price as the buyer wants more functionality or variety. And THIS is the fatal flaw. Have a look through the comments on the social media channels of major AI voice companies. They are a litany of complaints about having to buy more credits, auto-renewing subscriptions, upgrade fees, and gatekeeping. The BUYERS are not happy because the entire model is built on bait-and-switch sales tactics to extract more and more rent from the user. Yet, without this deeply frustrating model, one we can all relate to in other parts of our lives and which makes us hate the corporations who employ it, these firms, (which are almost universally still losing money and have uncertain hopes for profitability,) have zero possibility of satisfying the demands of their investors. And they are already starting to fail.

Ultimately, WE are the easy solution. Not the robots. And more and more buyers are starting to realize this, which is why there has been continued growth in the voiceover industry at large, and far less erosion in certain segments than expected.

AI voiceover is unlikely to simply disappear. It’s a reality. But buyers of human voices are consistently rejecting it, (the buyers of AI voice are turning out to be a parallel industry, not our existing client base,) and even those who gravitate to AI voice first are starting to encounter its fatal flaws.

AI voiceover companies and major corporations want voice actors scared, divided, and willing to make bad deals for personal security. But they are the ones with the clock ticking on their viability. Not us.

With the winds of change blowing briskly in terms of delivery preferences on the part of buyers, and socio-psychologically more broadly, now is a critical moment to be taking a cold-eyed look at what may be missing from several of your most important demos in the face of rapid evolution of client taste.

Here are three reels you need to evaluate:

1.) COMMERCIAL

With the era of quirk starting to go the way of the dodo, it’s time to evaluate whether parts of your reel are too cute for your own good. While heavily-written comedic scripts still have a lot of room for play, if your performances are too precious overall it might be time to axe certain spots.

Also, make sure your serious reads aren’t leaning too far into out-trending broken converastionalism or over-milked empathy/vulnerability. As assertiveness and ownership take center stage it’s time to make sure you have at least one signature spot on your commercial reel that leaves no doubt who’s in charge.

Finally, consider the vibe shift when you evaluate your reel as a whole, especially if you have an in-between voice age-wise. Now’s the time to sound like a woman, not a girl, and a man, not a boy. If you have an in-between voice you may want to consider revising a few spots to present just a bit more mature if your current real leans into youth too heavily. In turbulent times, reassuring maturity rules the day.

 

2.) CORPORATE NARRATION

This one might surprise you, but a lot of industry pros have been training & producing towards lighter, youthful, and quirky on Corporate reels as well. I’ve never fully subscribed to the idea that this genre was pivoting in that direction as much as Commercial has over the past decade, as many older and more presentational voices still thrive in Corporate Narration. Now, however, any movement in the direction of less-is-more overthought/overacted relatability is being quickly halted in this space.

As the era of work-from-home begins to end with more corporations requiring physical presence on the part of their employees, the tenor of corporate material is shifting back toward its longtime baseline of credibility, gravitas, and authority. That’s not to say that your Corporate demo shouldn’t still have at least one spot that leads with personality, it’s just to say that corporate culture is reverting to a more suit-and-tie direction, and buyer trends are already starting to reflect more appetite for polished reads in this space.

 

3.) POLITICAL

Okay, third rail right now, but nevertheless……..whether you voice for one side or both, the ENTIRE ISSUE SPECTRUM has changed as a result of the November election. Had the result been different, most existing political demos would likely have remained relevant for at least the next 12-18 months. Now, very simply, most are not. The issues at the top of voters minds in both parties are not what they were six months ago, and the messaging of both parties is rapidly shifting to reflect the new reality. Positioning for the midterms will start in just a few months, and as it does voice actors who do political spots will need to keep up with demo content that is fresh and relevant.

 

Now, keep in mind that most top producers offer demo refresh rates, so in many cases there’s no need to throw the baby out with the bath water. Across all these genres your reel likely has multiple spots that are still strong, current, and relevant. But now’s the time to take a hard look at any that aren’t, and to make the necessary changes to thrive in what has started off as a very strong year for most corners of the industry.

Did you watch the Super Bowl last night?

You can be excused for tuning out around halftime as the outcome was never in doubt, but if you are a voice actor it was worth hanging around until the end, and not just to hear Gabe Kunda sell Eagles championship merch or VO Atlanta Keynote Speaker Imari Williams crush it on the Taco Bell spot with Doja Cat and LeBron.

To the astute follower of commercial VO, something else stood out.

I’ve been talking for the better part of a year about the dramatic shifts happening in commercial VO casting, primarily the end of the Era of Quirk. Cutesy is dead, and what we’ve been defining as “conversational” over the last decade or more, is quickly following it out the door.

Super Bowl spots are generally not the place to look for commercial trends, as they are the ultimate mini-movies with a nature more cinematic than most advertising, but sometimes they capture a moment in the social psychology of the nation that speaks to where we have been, and where we are going.

Over the past six months there has been an acceleration of “something” changing in commercials in general, and commercial voiceover casting in particular. A shift that in workshops and coaching sessions I’ve variously described as being more assertive, declarative, or alpha. Very much counter to the prevailing trends of the past decade. Older. Less under-30 sounds and more 35-65. Not particularly less diverse, but more open to exploration of voice types in verticals and on product types that would not have been first choices over the past five years especially.

Last night, what I heard, (and what I SAW on spots that did not use VO,) was something that crystalized this trend into one word: Ownership.

The Era of Ownership in VO reads has begun.

What does that mean? It means that the socio-psychology of the nation has shifted into a dynamic where we no longer question what is ours and if we belong. Where certainty of perspective prevails, regardless of the perspective (and for better or worse,) and where we acknowledge and support victims but no longer are willing to BE victims.

The Nike spot (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b0Ezn5pZE7o) is a perfect example of this: This read is not “empowered.” Empowered is an out-trending buzzword that implies taking something that was rightfully yours but to which you were denied access. And while the spot’s messaging could easily be read that way, a listen to the read and a close watch of the visuals reveals that the perspective of this voiceover, the perspective of this spot, is ownership. The read declares that it is no longer about change or making up for things that should have been……this voice OWNS her place, just as the athletes do, just like Kendrick Lamar owned the halftime show, and no permission is asked or required to occupy her rightful space. This person has never been a victim because her success, her dominance, was inevitable. There’s no glory in having overcome…..only the power of ownership in the moment. It’s present-facing, forward-facing, but never looks back.

Even when humor is still at play in commercials, ownership is beginning to muscle its way into the delivery, like in this one of several Fox IndyCar promos: (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXn1l-R7uPY) The visuals and copy still have loads of play, but the read is winking deadpan, declarative, and masculine without trying.

Same with the Taco Bell spot I referenced earlier (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rzJPAqhIbXw) Great writing, cute spot, but the VO leans deeper, hip but more 35-45 than 20-30. And owns the read entirely, which is hard to do against celebs like LeBron and Doja.

Even Harrison Ford’s clever Jeep spot that many rated the best commercial of the night, without VO, was a good indication of where we are going. Certainty. Assertiveness. Open-minded, but not questioning or hesitant. A nod to unity, but also a decisive choice. Ownership.

What does this mean for us as Regular Joe & Jill VO’s?

It’s time to get out of the 2010’s and early pandemic mindset. Quirk is dead. Trying to be the “clever” voice is dead. No one wants to be preached to anymore. And the traditional rules of “conversational” are heading out the door, after over a decade of overuse leading to consumer fatigue. Ad buyers are telling us that their data says consumers are responding to messaging that knows what it wants, doesn’t ask for permission, and states its perspective clearly.

In 2025 there will be no “it” voice. No demographic that dominates. The only question will be, did you own the read?

Well, did you?

 

And once again it’s time to make a jackass out of myself with predictions for the New Year both for the voiceover industry and the world at large.

Now, before you get too excited, I’m the guy who predicted that the election would be thrown to the House and that a No Labels ticket of Larry Hogan and Jared Polis would win the election, so get your grains of salt ready!

That said, let’s see how my other forecasts for 2024 did before we move on to my Kreskin act for 2025!

GOT IT RIGHT/PRETTY CLOSE

“2024 will clarify what areas of voiceover are likely to be heavily impacted by AI, and which are likely to feel very little effect. I am more confident than ever that this technology is very little threat to real creative VO, and will largely proliferate in the YouTube, cheap explainer, and perhaps Imaging and Affiliate spaces, where price pressure is always on. Low-end e-learning will disappear, but quality-minded buyers know this tech does not hold the attention of their audiences. Moreover, more and more regulation will be enacted to protect us and society at large, and people will continue to reflexively simply reject the vulgar inauthenticity of generative AI in creative media. If a technology makes a noise in a tech bro’s house, will anyone else hear it? We will see.”

Well, that feels pretty spot on. In fact, if anything, Imaging & Affiliate were less affected than expected, and low tier e-learning has not completely disappeared. Most accurately, I think it has become clear that first and foremost gaming is the most at-risk genre from AI, as the continuing strike attests to.

I’ll take an “almost” on my Super Bowl pick…..got the 49ers getting there right, but the Dolphins became frozen fish in Kansas City.

Sadly my prediction regarding the turmoil in the Middle East was just about right on the nose.

“In a world that has grown more serious and dangerous, voices of strength and gravitas begin to grow in demand again, much as they did during the pandemic. For all the wrong reasons, middle aged talent and less-chatty reads have a strong 2024.”

I was about six months early on that, but man was it spot on in the second half of the year and in overdrive since the election.

Got China not invading Taiwan right.

Feel pretty good about my prediction that NAVA would keep kicking arse in 2024!

 

BLEW IT/WTF WERE YOU THINKING?

My wishful thinking about certain online casting platforms getting their act together….not so much.

Obviously my West Wing/Madam Secretary moderate election fantasy did not quite pan out. LOL.

Commercial VO did just fine in 2024, (indeed it was my personal best year,) but I don’t think the floodgates opened overall as much as I expected in general advertising, though political spots did have a record year as predicted.

My prediction of a deal in Ukraine sadly has not yet come true.

Wrong on no more strikes 🙁

Wrong on the housing market, at least with regard to cost in most places.

“While instability percolates abroad, America’s pivot to the political center at year’s end ushers in the beginning of a new era that sees moderate voices prevail and a new coming together around common sense ideas for growth, cooperation, inclusivity, and tolerance of diverse perspectives. Extremists on both sides of the ideological spectrum become the subject of deeper skepticism, and we all begin to get along again as the nature of both major parties begins to change in the wake of their rebuke by voters in November.”

This might look better a year from now, but that goes in the “loss” column for the moment.

 

OKAY, TIME FOR THE 2025 PREDICTIONS!

 

INDUSTRY: It kinda feels like someone turned the tap back on high around October of this year, and barring black swan societal events I think 2025 is a banner year for voiceover…….indeed, as the flood of new entrants that came with pandemic has already dramatically slowed, and with many washouts starting to thin the herd again, I believe 2025 will restore balance in many respects in the industry. Work volume grew in 2024 and we’ll continue to see that in 2025, with the interesting added dimension of a return to parity among demographic groups. The pivot to more assertive reads that I suggested in my previous blog looks like it has staying power, and in 2025 I don’t think we’ll see the same, “this type of voice is hot,” vibe that we’ve experienced over the past decade. I believe the market will settle into a place where everybody who has chops has action, and you’ll see some surprising casting choices with unexpected sounds on unexpected brands.

 

WORLD: That Super Bowl pick……my poor Bengals…..Joe Burrow throws 8 touchdowns and still loses…..on his couch on Super Bowl Sunday, on Madden. Meanwhile in the ACTUAL game, we’re gonna get the rematch America wants, and with the return of Aidan Hutchinson just in time for the big game, the Detroit Lions edge out the Buffalo Bills with a last-minute Hutchinson strip sack of Josh Allen as the Bills are threatening to win in the final moments.    BONUS PICK: The NFC Championship Game is a surprise Stafford/Goff Bowl, with the Los Angeles Rams unexpectedly meeting up with the Lions in Detroit, but taking a whoopin’ when they do.

 

INDUSTRY: With advertisers starting to get a better understanding of where younger eyeballs and ears are, we see that previously predicted flood of commercial spend in 2025, though we start to see geo-fencing become a much bigger factor in the way VO’s are hired, meaning LOTS more work, but the need to book in volume to earn. True national buys will slowly start to decline.

 

WORLD: The bird flu pandemic becomes a reality, but in a lucky twist of fate we get the version that has been infecting cows and dairy workers, not the nasty clade still found in birds. A short panic leads to the rapid realization that, like the H1N1 pandemic in 2009, it’s conjunctivitis and maybe a cold, and it’s a three week news cycle.

 

INDUSTRY: I’m calling at least one big agency merger in 2025.

 

WORLD: The first year of the new administration is a mixed bag. Successes will include making some real progress in cutting overspending by government and slashing bureaucracy. Trump will be largely successful in consolidating executive power around him, and that reality coupled with world leaders’ collective concerns about his predictability will actually help the world becomes a little more stable. The Russia/Ukraine war will end the way I predicted it would in 2024…..with a deal that leaves territory under the control it is currently under, while creating strong security guarantees for Ukraine and other East European nations. Israel and Saudi Arabia will strike a groundbreaking deal to bring the action in Gaza to an end. One or more nations will attack and destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities and capabilities, and the Iranian regime will fall by popular action and be replaced by a moderate, Western-style democracy.

On the other hand, Trump’s immigration crackdown will produce horrifying visuals, and scandals will quickly emerge over the enrichment of private detention companies and their abuse of deportees. A dramatically overvalued stock market will crash hard and the inflation crisis will be replaced by an unemployment crisis. The Democratic Party will sense the opportunity to seize back the mantel of populism and push hard for a stronger safety net, low cost education, and in the wake of copycats of the United Healthcare CEO murder the drumbeat for ending for-profit healthcare will become a movement that may be the most important issue in politics by the end of 2025. China still won’t invade Taiwan, unless the Trump administration actually moves on the Panama Canal or other territory, in which case they will frame it as a tit-for-tat.

 

INDUSTRY: The talent who have been hearing, “we have too many of you,” from agents over the past few years will hear that less in 2025, as long as their skill set and package for representation is impeccable, as the previously predicted market equilibrium grows. On the other hand, the 25-35 demographic might start hearing that more than they have in the past, as agents have been collecting youth for awhile now and are reaching a saturation point. The pendulum always swings.

 

WORLD: While some will dispute the findings, scientists will reveal convincing evidence of the existence (past or present) of an alien civilization in 2025.

 

INDUSTRY: You’ll hear Southern voices/accents in very unexpected placements. Write it down.

If you attended the NAVA gala, you can skip this blog as you’ve already heard what I’m about to say. ACTUALLY……maybe you didn’t. Why? Because there were 400+ of the Who’s Who of voiceover in that room chattering up a storm and I practically had to shout like Juan Peron on a balcony to be heard. That’s not an indictment of the noisy crowd, but reason to celebrate.

See, here’s the thing…..in just one year, the NAVA Gala, an event where people come from far and wide, sometimes at great personal expense, to then GIVE BACK EVEN MORE by bidding on auction items, making donations, and spreading the word, has grown to a size equivalent to the One Voice Conference USA…..in other words, pretty much tied for the second largest headcount among industry events. And no one is there to GET……everyone is there to GIVE.

Conferences are incredible and valuable things, but you pay for your admission with an expectation of RECEIVING…..knowledge, insight, face-time, a few free drinks, maybe some good Southern fried chicken….free swag on closing day. But just over a week ago, in LA, hundreds turned out to GIVE back to an organization that is dedicated to fighting for our collective existence as professionals.

This tells me something that runs counter to so much of the FUD (look it up) that we see on voiceover social media these days. It tells me that, in spite of synthetic voices….in spite of current and past and future? strikes…..in spite of a rapidly changing media landscape that naturally engenders uncertainty…..WE, as a profession, WE, the voice actors…..WE ARE WINNING!

A room full of people bidding 10x market value on autographed VO-industry memorabilia to help NAVA fight for us. A room full of people standing up so fast to just DONATE thousands of dollars that the folks writing down paddle numbers could barely keep up. A room full of people only half? based in LA, the rest spending copious amounts to fill up hotels and airplanes just to be there to give. This, my friends, is not an industry in difficulty. It is an industry full of success stories.

However, all too often, the increasing tenor of social media, with small but noisy groups of tut-tutters sniping at those who post their wins and amplifying struggle stories and doom and gloom about the NEXT BIG THING THAT WILL BE THE VOICEOVER APOCALYPSE, not only gives the impression of an industry that is doing poorly, but moreover discourages the many talent who are absolutely thriving from sharing their successes for fear of being labeled show-offs. And ultimately, this damages all of us, because mood matters……when collective psychology says, “things are bad,” people don’t fight as hard for fair rates, because if things are bad we need to take what we can get, right? Even agents might be afraid to push for more when in the grips of a culture of negativity. When newer talent are talked down to and dismissed for asking questions or told, “why bother in this market,” they might hesitate to speak up when something goes right for them, or avoid making that one move that would be the difference between them reaching their goals or not, or just give up altogether.

Negativity breeds more negativity, which ultimately leads to defeatism and collective damage.

This is not to dismiss those who ARE legitimately struggling. And there are many. And for innumerable reasons. And yes, we want to hear those stories too, and help, and lift you up and see you become a part of this vibrant, thriving community.

But this is meant as a challenge to those who ARE NOT struggling. To those who are fu***ing crushing it right now day in and day out, or week in and week out, or who just booked their first big national thing but aren’t sure if someone will say something critical if they post it…..    IT’S TIME TO SHOW YOUR A**

This industry needs to know that there are hundreds of talent out there booking daily. Thousands booking weekly. And that for many, 2024 will have been their best year yet. It’s time to change the conversation. It’s time for those who win in the shadows to step out and LEAD the conversation. To show and tell, and heck, if you can, TEACH others how you did it. If you are hitting six figures plus and you care about this industry it’s incumbent upon you to send the elevator back down….to make yourself known….and to yell to the rafters that IT CAN BE DONE AND THIS IS HOW. The voiceover business NEEDS YOU. We need new blood, new thought leaders, new perspectives, and new stories about how building a career in the 2020’s looks different, but can still be just as rewarding as ever.

Are you up for the challenge?